Demand pushes up oil prices in the second half of the year or higher

Recently, the improvement of supply and demand has continued to push up oil prices, with international crude oil prices hitting a new high in three months, and Shanghai crude oil futures also breaking through the 600 yuan/barrel mark strongly, once again pulling crude oil into a highlight moment. Looking ahead, a number of international investment banks said that they are optimistic about the performance of oil prices in the second half of the year, and believe that international oil prices are expected to run steadily above $80 per barrel by the end of the year.

The supply and demand side ushered in an improvement

Recently, the performance of the international crude oil market has been remarkable. According to Wenhua financial data, on July 25, the main Brent crude oil futures contract reached as high as $83.47 per barrel, the highest level since April 17; The U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil reached as high as $79.90 per barrel, a new high since April 18 this year, and by the time of press release on July 26, the prices of the two varieties had risen by 9.59% and 11.58% since the beginning of this month.

Looking at the long term, the current round of oil price rallies has lasted for four weeks. A month ago, the price of WTI crude oil was around $67 per barrel.

"At present, international oil prices have entered the technical overbought area above the 200-day moving average." Industry insiders said that since August last year, the area has been a key resistance level for international crude oil futures.

"At present, the impact of geopolitical conflict factors and dollar fluctuations on the crude oil market tends to weaken, and even has a certain degree of reverse promotion, but crude oil prices have strengthened against the trend, indicating that the supply and demand side support is strong, and the market expects that the demand for crude oil will increase in the future." Industry insiders said.

When international oil prices rose sharply, Shanghai crude oil futures also broke through the 600 yuan/barrel mark strongly, and the main continuous contract on July 26 touched up to 606.2 yuan/barrel, and the last time it broke through this barrier was in April, "OPEC+" unexpectedly announced a voluntary production cut.

A new report from the National Energy Research and Development Center said: "There are some signs that the crude oil market is tight. The escalating geopolitical situation has raised concerns about the supply of commodities. The repeated emphasis on restricting oil exports by major producers has also increased the market's concerns, which has allowed oil prices to continue to rise sharply and even refresh the highs of this round of rebound, and have begun to approach the strong resistance area of the highs in the first half of the year. ”

The second half of the year is expected to run strongly

As oil prices climb to recent highs, many international investment banks are still optimistic about the performance of oil prices in the second half of the year, and believe that international oil prices are expected to run steadily above $80 per barrel by the end of the year.

Goldman Sachs expects the supply gap to be close to 2 million b/d in the third quarter as demand reaches a new high, raising Brent crude price expectations from $80/b to $86/b by the end of the year.

"The rise in oil prices reflects the impact of production cuts in Saudi Arabia and other countries on the market, and the demand for gasoline and jet fuel has increased in the summer, and the market supply is still tightening, with an average price of $83 per barrel in the third quarter." Citigroup noted in the report.

Looking forward to the second half of the year, Dong Chao, an analyst at Shenwan Hongyuan Futures, believes that the trend of oil prices mainly depends on three issues: first, the interest rate policy of Europe and the United States, the specific node of interest rate hikes in the United States and when interest rate cuts will have a great impact on the commodity market, and the pace of interest rate hikes in Europe will also affect crude oil demand to a large extent; the second is the output problem of large production capacity; The third is U.S. oil production, which is widely expected to decline in the second half of the year, and the speed of the decline will be crucial to oil prices.

"Compared with the first half of the year, oil prices are facing greater uncertainty, and the recovery of demand will determine the upper limit of oil prices, and considering the role of OPEC as a bottom, it is expected that the lower limit of oil prices will be difficult to break through the bottom of the first half of the year, and the core range of oil prices will gradually rise in the second half of the year. If demand in Europe and the United States recovers, prices are expected to break through previous highs. Dong Chao said.

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