Coking coal prices continue to rise, sales are hot, and the phenomenon of "cars waiting for coal" is frequent

In mid-to-late August, thermal coal prices are gradually returning to rationality, but coking coal prices continue to rise.

Last week, coke companies just implemented the sixth round of increases, and yesterday, coke companies raised coke prices again.

Despite this, the industry believes that coke prices have not yet peaked due to the favorable support of upstream and downstream. At the same time, the suspension of coal mines in Shanxi has led to a decrease in supply, and the phenomenon of "cars waiting for coal" is frequently seen in coal mine sales.

In addition, the continuous rise in coking coal prices is also due to the fact that steel mills are quite profitable, steel prices have hit a new high in the past five years, and price increases in all links of the coal and coke steel industry chain have been started.

Sales are booming, and "cars and other coal" are frequent

Yesterday, due to the news that Hebei's leading coke enterprises plan to raise prices, most coke enterprises across the country except for the southwest have risen, and the increase is as high as 100 yuan per ton.

In fact, the coke market just implemented the sixth round of increases last week, due to the first two increases of 80 yuan / ton, relative to the previous increase is larger, so the market has been digesting the previous increase in recent days, but yesterday's new round of increase was somewhat sudden and the increase was even more unexpected.

The upstream and downstream good support still exists, and the market speculation is like "oil", which "adds fuel to the fire" in the continuously rising market, which will inevitably cause the coke market to burn more and more. At present, the seventh round of increase can be said to be a certainty, so the eighth round of increase will not be too far away.

According to the data monitored by Zhongyu Information, the national pig iron output in July was 62.07 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.1%, the crude steel output in July was 74.02 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.3%, and the coke output in July was 37.28 million tons, an increase of only 0.1% year-on-year.

At the same time, this year, the National Development and Reform Commission and the General Administration of Customs have both issued restrictions on inferior imported coal, and the import volume of coking coal has decreased more than the same period last year, which has also caused a certain contraction in supply.

Judging from the monthly coking coal import volume, since May 2017, the year-on-year decline has been very large, and the effect is very obvious. In April, when import restrictions have not yet been implemented, the year-on-year increase was 58%, while in May and June, the year-on-year increases were 5.45% and -0.36%, respectively.

It should be mentioned that due to the accident at the Luxin Coal Mine in Heshun, the coal mines under the Heshun Coal Group can produce normally, except for Lu'an and Yangmei Group, and all coal mines in other places have stopped production, and the open-pit coal mines in other areas of Jinzhong have also received notices of suspension of production inspection. In addition, the open-pit mine in the Luliang area has also received a notice of suspension of production inspection.

The Lvxin coal industry concealed the accident, affecting the production capacity of 14.8 million tons, considering the widespread overproduction of open-pit mines, the affected output is expected to be 20 million tons, with an average daily output of 60,000 tons.

At the same time, many coal mines in Shanxi are in the situation of zero inventory, and the industry is generally bullish on the region, and the speculation enthusiasm is high.

A trader in Shanxi said that due to the pressure of environmental protection, the demand for high-quality low-sulfur coal in coking plants is high, and the current coal mine is very tight, and the price is also rising frequently, and the phenomenon of "waiting for coal" has appeared again.

Xu Shinan also said that in the first half of the year, a landslide accident occurred in a coal mine in Shanxi, and the open-pit coal mines in Jinzhong and Luliang areas required centralized shutdown and rectification, and the supply of coking coal in Shanxi continued to tighten, so the coking coal market in Shanxi continued to be bullish in the case of declining production and increasing demand.

Record steel prices have pushed coking coal prices higher

It should be mentioned that in addition to the impact of reduced supply, the continued rise in coking coal prices is mainly due to the high profits of steel mills, which has led to upstream hopes to re-divide profits. However, at present, the operating rate of downstream steel mills is relatively high, and the supply of coke is slightly insufficient, which also provides strong support for the rise of coking coal.

Recently, steel prices have hit a new high in the past five years, and the price increase of all links in the coal and coke steel industry chain has been started, which is basically reflected in the price transmission from the downstream to the upstream link.

Taking rebar as an example, the spot price in Shanghai has continued to rise since mid-June, and has now broken through the 4,000 yuan/ton mark, and has rebounded to the price level in mid-2012. At the same time, in terms of profitability, the gross profit per ton of rebar has exceeded 1,400 yuan/ton, which is a historical high in the past seven years.

With the maintenance of high profitability of steel mills, steel mills began to accept the price increase of the upstream coke link, and then the price continued to be transmitted upward, and the upstream coking coal price also began to stabilize and rebound.

At the same time, the research report of China Securities Construction Investment also pointed out that from the historical law of coking coal replenishment by downstream coking plants, basically from the end of July and early August, the increase in replenishment is very obvious, mainly for the "golden nine silver ten" stocking, and this round of replenishment will basically continue to January next year, the replenishment cycle is longer, and the price of coking coal is easy to rise and fall during this period.

In addition, due to the coal supply-side reform led to a large decline in the overall social inventory of coal, superimposed on the sharp rise in steel prices, the current round of coking plant replenishment began in mid-June, and coking coal prices began to increase in mid-to-late July.