【Data】The CMI index continued to decrease year-on-year and increased month-on-month, and the expansion of the construction machinery market slowed down

 

In August 2019, China's construction machinery market index was negative year-on-year, with a decrease of 2.65 percentage points, and a positive month-on-month decline, with a decrease of 11.77 percentage points. It shows that in August, China's construction machinery market was affected by cyclical and seasonal factors, and was in the stage of handover of the off-peak season.

 

In the CMI index, the inventory index of the survey and feedback for the manufacturer group was 1.8 percentage points higher than that of the previous period, and the production index increased by 1.2 percentage points; the new order index for the survey feedback of the agent group increased slightly compared with the previous period, and the user price index for the first-line market survey was basically flat.

 

According to the data released by the association, the 25 host manufacturers included in the statistics in July 2019 sold a total of 12,346 units of various excavation machinery products, a year-on-year increase of 11.0%; The sales volume in the domestic market (excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) was 10,171 units, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%, higher than our previous forecast of 703 units, and still within the peak update period of the previous cycle; Export sales were 2,156 units, a year-on-year increase of 20.7%, and overseas markets continued to perform well.

 

 

From the perspective of the market terminal, in July 2019, the number of operating hours of excavators monitored by the domestic circulation field decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, and the operating degree was slightly lower than the level of the same period in 2018.

 

From the perspective of increased investment on the demand side, from January to July 2019, the national investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) 348892 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, and the growth rate was 0.1 percentage points lower than that from January to June.

 

The growth rate of investment in the mining industry reached 27.4%, an increase of 5.1 percentage points from the previous month, but it was still high. Infrastructure investment increased by 3.8% year-on-year, down 0.3 percentage points from January to June. Among them, the investment in water conservancy management fell by 0.3%, and increased by 1.1% from January to June; investment in public facilities management increased by 0.1%, down 0.3% from January to June; The investment in the road transport industry increased by 6.9 percent, the growth rate fell by 1.2 percentage points, and the investment in the railway transport industry increased by 12.7 percent, the growth rate fell by 1.4 percentage points.

 

From the perspective of real estate investment, real estate development investment increased by 10.6 percent year-on-year, down 0.3 percentage points from January to June; the area of new construction of real estate development enterprises increased by 9.5 percent, and the growth rate fell by 0.6 percentage points; the construction area of real estate development enterprises was 794207 million square meters, up 9.0 percent year-on-year, up 0.2 percentage points from January to June; and the land purchase area of real estate development enterprises was 97.61 million square meters, down 29.4 percent year-on-year. The decline widened by 1.9 percentage points.

 

From January to July, industrial investment increased by 3.8% year-on-year, 0.5 percentage points faster than that in the first half of the year. Among them, manufacturing investment increased by 3.3 percent, the growth rate accelerated by 0.3 percentage points, and rebounded for three consecutive months. Among the investment in the manufacturing industry, the investment in the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 1.9 percent, the growth rate accelerated by 0.8 percentage points, and the investment in technological transformation of the manufacturing industry increased by 12.7 percent, the growth rate was 9.4 percentage points higher than that of the total manufacturing investment, and continued to maintain a guiding trend.

 

By region, investment in the eastern region increased by 4.5 percent year-on-year, an increase of 0.1 percentage points over the January-June period, while investment in the central region increased by 9.4 percent, the same growth rate as in the January-June period. Investment in the western region increased by 5.6 percent, down by 0.5 percentage points, while investment in the northeast region fell by 3.7 percent, an increase of 0.1 percentage points.

 

From the statistical point of view, in addition to the mining industry, and the construction machinery industry closely related to the demand side investment growth has fallen slightly, but the construction machinery industry is located in the equipment manufacturing industry investment and technological transformation investment growth rate further accelerated, which also in the horizontal industry perspective to express the confidence of enterprises and industries in the short and medium term, on the whole, the growth of fixed asset investment is basically stable, which means that the downstream demand side of the construction machinery industry remains stable, We remain cautiously optimistic about the market in the fourth quarter of 2019.

 

Incorporating the excavator sales data in July 2019 into the monitoring and forecasting data model of China's construction machinery market, we predict that in August 2019, the domestic excavator market sales will be 10,012 units, a year-on-year decrease of 2.4%.