Domestic refined oil prices were raised for the 10th time this year

The National Development and Reform Commission announced on the 20th that from 24 o'clock on September 20, 2023, domestic gasoline and diesel prices will increase by 385 yuan and 370 yuan per ton respectively. Equivalent to the price increase, the national average is that No. 92 gasoline has increased by 0.3 yuan per liter, No. 95 gasoline has increased by 0.32 yuan per liter, and No. 0 diesel has increased by 0.31 yuan per liter.So far, domestic refined oil prices have ushered in the 10th increase in the year. Based on the calculation of a small private car with a fuel tank capacity of 50 liters, the owner will spend about 15 yuan more to fill up a tank of gasoline. After this price adjustment, this year's domestic refined oil price adjustment showed a pattern of "ten up, six down and three stranded".Analysts generally believe that during the current round of refined oil price adjustment cycle, the expectation of tight supply in the global oil market continues to rise, and speculative funds bet on crude oil bulls, stimulating oil prices to continue to rise. In early September, Saudi Arabia and Russia extended voluntary additional production cuts until the end of the year, and market institutions were worried about the tight relationship between oil supply and demand. Speculative bullish sentiment is strong, with data from the Intercontinental Exchange and the U.S. Commodity Futures Commission showing that net long positions in Brent and WTI have increased to a 15-month high. As a result, international oil prices continued to rise to a 10-month high.

According to the monitoring of the Price Monitoring Center of the National Development and Reform Commission, international oil prices rose sharply during the current round of refined oil price adjustment cycle (September 6 to September 19). On average, London Brent and New York WTI oil prices increased by 7.68% compared with the previous price adjustment cycle.According to the current refined oil price adjustment mechanism, the next round of price adjustment window will be opened at 24 o'clock on October 10.In this regard, Li Yan, an analyst at Longzhong Information, said that based on the current international crude oil price level, the next round of refined oil price adjustment will show an upward trend at the beginning. At present, the "OPEC+" production cut atmosphere is significantly supported, and the economic concern is weakened, positive factors still have the upper hand, and it is expected that the next round of refined oil price adjustment is more probable.Wang Yanting, senior analyst of Jinlianchuang refined oil products, said that in the future, in the short term, international crude oil prices will remain high, and the new round of crude oil change rate will continue to fluctuate positively, and the news will still be supported in the face of oil prices in the later market.

The National Development and Reform Commission Price Monitoring Center expects that the tight supply caused by the "OPEC+" production cut measures will continue to have strong support for oil prices, but the continuous rise in oil prices has increased the pressure on Europe and the United States to control inflation, the United States CPI rose higher than expected in August, and the rise in oil prices has become the main reason for the rebound in inflation, and the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank will maintain high interest rates for a longer period of time, which will have a negative impact on global economic growth and will also inhibit the growth of crude oil demand.

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