Li Peng, a wind power expert: The whole machine is facing a reshuffle

At the wind energy tea party held a few years ago, Li Peng, deputy director of the Wind Energy Special Committee of the China Renewable Energy Society, expressed his views on the current situation of wind power, which attracted the attention of the industry.

The value of wind power assets is higher than that of photovoltaics

Li Peng first predicted the installed wind power capacity in the past two years, and he believes that the installed wind power capacity can reach 70-80 GW in 2023, and it can also be predicted that this amount will be maintained in 2024. He further said that in a wind and solar project in the north, the EPC price of wind power was less than 5,000 yuan/kW, and now the annual equivalent utilization hours are 3,100, and the electricity price is about 0.31 yuan/kWh, which is the same as the benchmark electricity price of coal power. The photovoltaic EPC price next to it is about less than 4,000 yuan/kW, the annual equivalent utilization hours are 1,524, and the electricity price is discounted by 20% on the basis of 0.31 yuan/kWh, and the valley electricity price is implemented. Through the calculation, it can be found that the difference in the internal rate of return of the two assets is about 5 times. Therefore, in 2023, wind power will be installed to about 75 million kilowatts, which is earned by the industry for itself, and once wind power enters the spot market in the future, its electricity price friendliness will be higher than that of photovoltaics, and the value of wind power assets will be much better than that of photovoltaics. At this point, it is clear to understand the price of road strips.

Parts production capacity is stable and profit margins are high

In view of the problem of less profits of wind power turbines, Li Peng analyzed that the first logic, as a development enterprise, it is difficult to distinguish the real difference in the quality of various brands of wind turbines. The whole machine production capacity in China is very large, reaching twice the actual demand. Why are profits being earned by parts? This is because the production capacity of key components has been stable. Everyone went to buy gearboxes, and once the demand expanded, the price of parts rose. The second logic is that China's machine enterprises are all manufacturers based on the same industrial chain system, and the blades they buy are all Times New Materials, Zhongfu Lianzhong, etc., and the gearboxes are all NGC and Delijia. Products assembled based on the same supply chain have no brand threshold. Behind the brand is quality assurance and service, and after-sales service is guaranteed.

Wind power manufacturers are facing a reshuffle

Li Peng believes that the quality of the main engine product is difficult to quantify, for so many years, no one has been able to put forward a very convincing levelized cost of electricity, the whole machine enterprise hopes that the development enterprise will pay a quality premium, such as a premium of 300-400 yuan/kilowatt, what is the value behind this premium, can not be measured.

Li Peng further said that behind closed doors, the wind power industry will do a good job in controlling public opinion in 2023. In 2023, wind power blades will have the most problems, and some even conventional generators will have problems, which will cause several problems to be considered: the first is to pull up the radish and bring out the mud, eat the headroom in the design, and maintain low prices by reducing the cost of the entire industrial chain, which will inevitably occur. In 2012, many machine manufacturers have experienced the situation, which was the most dangerous year for wind power, and there were many accidents. Li Peng believes that the model iteration is very fast, but the real modular design thinking has not yet completely fallen.

In recent years, the research and development of blades has been relatively backward, and it is possible that there will be material iterations in the environment of large blades, and carbon fiber is more than 100-130 meters. Now that the cost of materials has been reduced, the next few years will be a reshuffle period, like Goldwind has a brand premium, and the industry will feel that the quality is guaranteed. However, some new and second-tier manufacturers, once there is a batch accident, it is very likely to be out. Therefore, in the next 2-3 years, even if the market stabilizes at 75-80 GW, there may be manufacturers with poor quality control out of the market, or the market share will stick to the proportion of wind resources it provides. Wind power enterprises still need to do efficient industrial chain management, and do not have batch accidents. Finally, there are batches of enterprises, in the wind energy association statistics of the list of hoisting volume will be less and less, should cause the industry to attach great importance to it, rather than to do public opinion control, these are two completely different results, there are always places that cannot be deleted.

If there is really a wind turbine that can prove that it will be 200 hours longer than others in the same place, when converted to the price of the host, the developer will buy it without blinking, but no one can quantify and prove it.

In 2024, the development of the Sanbei University base is optimistic

In view of the future development of wind power in the Sanbei region, Li Peng gave a detailed explanation. Sanbei's contribution to wind power installations in 2023 is expected. The best place for PV is 1,700 hours per year, and in Qinghai and Tibet, the utilization rate of the channel is insufficient. However, it is not uncommon for the whole wind power utilization hours in the Sanbei area to be 4,000, which is an area with better winds. If it is said that 4000 hours of delivery, the channel utilization rate is almost more than 50%, wind + light is sent together, and the proportion of power in the delivery channel that has been troubled for many years can be well solved, which is delivery. In recent years, the role of thermal power should still be affirmed, and so many new installed capacity have not increased its utilization hours.

It is common for the annual utilization hours of a single machine to reach 4000-5000 in Sanbei, and if the annual utilization hours of the station can reach 4000, it can be well matched with the industrial load. Coupled with energy storage, this piece is also an increment of Sanbei. Therefore, Li Peng is optimistic about the three major bases in 2024. There is also a breakthrough in the load storage of the three-north source network, and at present, China's experiments are relatively advanced.

Larger-scale development of wind power relies on "wind power +"

For the future development of wind power, Li Peng believes that it is necessary to pay attention to "wind power +". He said that wind power and photovoltaic power in all countries in the world will be greatly differentiated after entering the spot market. The simultaneous rate of wind power is only 20%, so it is very grid-friendly. The price difference between wind power and photovoltaic power in Shanxi has risen from 0.01 yuan/kWh in the past to more than 0.02 yuan/kWh, and now it has risen to nearly 0.05 yuan/kWh. The power generation of the same new energy, which runs continuously in the pure spot market, even has wind power more than 0.1 yuan/kWh higher than that of photovoltaics.

Through participating in a number of discussion activities, Li Peng summed up: First, the spot market must be a very important measure to solve the problem of healthy development of new energy and to regulate the proportion of wind and solar, including solving the problem of its consumption. Second, spot market trading is certainly good for wind power, and it has now been proven. Third, the next important thing is to do "wind power+".

In 2023, the installed capacity of photovoltaic will be about 217 billion kilowatts, and the distributed capacity will account for nearly 110 million kilowatts. Therefore, there is a market of more than 100 million kilowatts, which is brought about by business model innovation. At present, the business model innovation of the wind power industry is relatively lagging behind, and it is necessary to expand "wind power +", including decentralized and direct supply of wind power, in order to further expand the market. Li Peng stressed that whether the new installed capacity of wind power can reach 200 million kilowatts in 2030 depends on how much role "wind power +" can play.