Opinion: It is expected that the sales growth rate of excavators in January will be more than 50%.

[ChinaRoad machineryAs expected, excavator sales in January 2017 will continue to continue the rapid growth trend in the second half of 2016.

Recently, some industry researchers expressed their views that it is expected that the growth rate of domestic excavator sales in January this year is still close to 50%, and the leading excavator company Sany Heavy Industry has performed strongly, and the growth rate of Sany Heavy Industry may exceed 70%.

According to the report of the mechanical group of the GF Securities Development Research Center, according to the grassroots research feedback on the excavator dealers of large OEMs in some provinces and cities: the sales data in January 2017 is still optimistic, although disturbed by the Spring Festival holiday, high growth can still be sustained, and the acceleration is still in progress, the preliminary judgment of the industry growth rate is between 70%-80%, and the sales growth rate of leading enterprises is about 100%.

In the second half of 2016, excavator sales grew rapidly

Data show that in December 2016, the national excavator sales increased by 75%, an annual increase of 25%, significantly exceeding the expectations of 15% in the middle of the year, mainly exceeding expectations in the fourth quarter. Industry insiders said that they are optimistic about the peak season of 2017 * 5656 quarter, and the prosperity of the construction machinery industry is expected to increase.

In 2016, 29 companies in the industry sold a total of 70,320 excavators, compared with the most sluggish 2015 sales of 11,354 units, which is the first time that the sales volume has turned positive in more than 4 years during the transformation and adjustment period and the downturn, and the growth rate exceeded double digits, reaching 19.3%. These 29 companies exported a total of 7,327 excavators throughout the year, an increase of 27.8% from 5,731 in 2015.

In 2016, Sany Heavy Industry was very eye-catching, and its sales volume ranked in the industry, which was more than 1.4 times that of Caterpillar, the second place in the industry, and it was also an enterprise with more than 10,000 units of sales in China's excavator industry in 2016. In this strong Chinese excavator market, in this period of transformation, Sany has been in the industry, and the gap with the second place has widened by more than 1.4-2.4 times in recent years. In 2016, Sany excavator exports reached 2,823 units, which also ranked in the industry. In this period of transformation and adjustment, Sany's excavators have a strong competitive advantage. This is the result of the great success of the excavator product structure adjustment and technological upgrading carried out by Sany since the transformation and adjustment period. The reason why Sany excavator can achieve such great success is that product technology plays a key role. The products and manufacturing technology of Sany excavator have reached the world's most advanced level.

What do the most senior people in the industry think?

On the afternoon of February 7, according to the news of securities institutions, they invited people in the construction machinery industry to discuss the current situation of the construction machinery market. The person said that the construction machinery industry has been deeply adjusted for 6 years, and these 6 years are also the golden age of second-hand construction machinery, but since the second half of last year, the trading volume of second-hand construction machinery has begun to shrink. After this round of reshuffle, the concentration of the construction machinery industry has increased significantly.

According to the person, the current excavator operating hour data has reached the level of 2009-2010. After the Spring Festival, the excavator products of the construction machinery company where they are located have been out of stock for a long time, and some supply chain enterprises have also been out of stock. Overall, the excavator industry will still be more optimistic in the first half of this year, and the upward momentum is expected to be good, and the growth trend will fall in the second half of the year.

After these years of development, the rise momentum of domestic brands contrasts with the decline of foreign brands.

The data shows that in 2016, among the top 10 major enterprises in China's excavator industry, domestic and foreign brands accounted for 5 each, and the sales volume of domestic brands was more than that of foreign brands. Previously, among the top 10 major enterprises, there were only 1-2 domestic brands, and the sales volume accounted for a small proportion, while the sales volume and the number of enterprises of foreign brands accounted for more than 80% of the top 10. It can be seen that the competitiveness of China's national brand excavator has been enhanced in this period of transformation and adjustment.

Ebatong is a collection of online and offline as one of the national entity chain second-hand equipment trading enterprises, mainly engaged in second-hand construction machinery entity consignment business, Ebatong general manager Zhang Jingsuo said in an interview with China Road Machinery Network reporter that there are currently three phenomena in the second-hand equipment market, one is, in the market clearly feel the state of the second-hand equipment acquisition difficulties, the main second-hand equipment utilization rate is constantly improving, the turnover of equipment is decreasing, more than 40 tons of large equipment less; Second, the second-hand equipment transaction is very active, Ebatong traded four 38 units in January 2016, and more than 80 units were traded in January this year, and the demand of end users is still very large; Third, the recognition of second-hand equipment of domestic brands by users in the second-hand market has increased.

Zhang Jingsuo, general manager of eBaitong

factor

*5656, it is currently believed that it is mainly due to the demand side, that is, the real estate market has driven the increase in demand for construction machinery. However, after analysis, it was found that in the case of a relatively stable or even slightly declining trend of infrastructure investment and new real estate starts, the growth rate of excavator sales has risen in 16 years, and the growth trend has not decreased. So the increase in demand is not the main reason for the increase in excavator sales.

Second, the reason why the sales of this round of excavators exceeded expectations was to replace the old excavators with new generations. According to the statistics of the construction machinery industry, the general service life of domestic construction machinery is 8-10 years. That is to say, in 2008 and 2009, the excavator equipment purchased under the stimulus of four trillion investment is basically the time to upgrade. In addition, from the market survey of second-hand excavators, the use time of these excavators is basically more than 10,000 hours, and it is time to replace them.

Third, driven by the "One Belt, One Road" strategy advocated by China, many countries along the route have started to build many major infrastructure construction projects, which are basically undertaken by China's construction army and are in full swing. These Chinese construction troops, a large number of purchases are China's construction machinery, will greatly drive China's construction machinery, especially the construction machinery of the excavator market climbing; After nearly five years of transformation and adjustment, starting from 2016, China has entered a new "13th Five-Year Plan" period of national economic construction, according to the national "13th Five-Year Plan", the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, will set off a new round of major new infrastructure construction new upsurge.

According to the "Medium and Long-term Railway Network Plan", "Three-year Action Plan for the Construction of Major Transportation Infrastructure Projects" and other national plans, China will focus on promoting the construction of transportation infrastructure projects. In 2017, the growth rate of infrastructure investment will remain at the level of about 20%, and the overall scale is expected to be about 16 trillion yuan.

It is expected that the sales growth rate of excavators in January will be more than 50%.

These new major infrastructure constructions mainly include high-speed rail, urban rail transit, new energy, new airports, new farmland and water conservancy, new towns, new countryside (including beautiful villages), and new tourism facilities. It will bring a new round of orderly development of construction machinery and excavators. This new round of orderly development has begun in the second half of 2016 at the beginning of the "13th Five-Year Plan" and will gradually increase from 2017.

worry

Despite the disturbance of the Spring Festival holiday, excavator sales in January 2017 still increased significantly, and the production capacity of the deposit will be released again. However, there is also a worrying aspect: how long can this rapid growth continue? Enterprises quickly increase production capacity and increase inventory, if the sales of their own products are not accurate enough, is there a new round of overcapacity and inventory backlog?