The CMI index suggests that the peak season is coming, and it is expected that the sales of excavators will increase by more than 60% in February

In February 2017, China's construction machinery market index, namely CMI, was 108.61, an increase of 3.10% year-on-year and 3.39% month-on-month (according to CMI judgment standards, 100

In February 2017, China's construction machinery market index increased by 3.56 points over the previous month, an increase of 3.27 points over the same period last year, year-on-year, month-on-month continued to grow, and the warming trend of the index for two consecutive months established the 2017 China construction machinery market * 5656 cyclical peak season ahead of schedule.

Since September 2016, the growth rate of excavators has remained high, and the current market recovery trend is relatively strong; This is due to the low base in the same period of 2015 and the recovery of demand from downstream industries such as mining, new rural construction, municipal engineering, and railway and highway construction.

In January 2017, the sales volume of excavators was 4,548 units, of which 3,972 units were sold in the domestic excavator market (excluding Hong Kong and Macao, including import sales), a year-on-year increase of 57.87%; export sales were 600 units, a year-on-year increase of 29.31%; The domestic and overseas markets still maintain a trend of continued recovery and acceleration.

In terms of regional conditions, Jilin, Tianjin, Shanxi, Ningxia, Liaoning, Hebei, Xinjiang, Jiangsu, Qinghai, Guizhou and Shanghai all achieved monthly year-on-year growth of more than 100%. The market performance was unsatisfactory in Hunan, Tibet and Beijing, with year-on-year growth rates of 5.69%, -5.88% and -24.00% respectively.

From the point of view of brand performance, the growth rate is more prominent Liebherr, Hyundai Jiangsu, Shandong Lingong, XCMG, John Deere and Foton Lovol, the growth rate is also more than 100%, the main factors behind it are almost all in the same period in 2016 The low base of the market, after the integration of some brand channels, the late-mover potential in 2017 can not be ignored.

At present, the recovery trend of the market is relatively strong, * mainly due to the low base in the same period of 2016, and thanks to the early Spring Festival holiday this year, at the end of January, the impact of the holiday on the purchasing behavior of user groups in January and February is more balanced, so the peak season is relatively early by about ten years.

In December 2016, the author shared with industry colleagues that the forecast data for January 2017 was 4,566 units, and now looking back, the error with the actual data is 0.40%.

Standing at this new point in time, according to the forecast of China's construction machinery market monitoring and forecasting data model, the excavator market sales in February 2017 were 5,961 units, a year-on-year increase of 63.14%, and the sales volume in March was 14,873 units, a year-on-year increase of 8.21%. The forecast data will be updated on a monthly basis based on upstream and downstream economic, investment and sales data, as well as immediate feedback from first-tier markets.