The machinery industry as a whole is expected to grow by 7% this year

Editor's note

2016 is the first year of the "13th Five-Year Plan", and it is also a year when China's machinery industry and enterprises are facing development difficulties. Despite this, the machinery industry still handed over a good answer, and the growth rate of industrial added value and other indicators continued to rise year-on-year. In 2017, difficulties and hopes are the same, both domestic economic growth is stable, the supply-side structural reform policy effect is gradually emerging and other positive factors, as well as the global economic weak recovery trend is difficult to improve and other unfavorable factors, I believe that machinery enterprises will be able to walk out of a road of rebirth in the predicament.

Characteristics of the industry

The indicator lows rebounded

In 2016, the growth rate of added value of the machinery industry showed a trend of rising month by month, with a year-on-year increase of 9.6% in 1~12 months, an increase of 4.1 percentage points over the growth rate of the previous year, and 3.6 percentage points higher than the national industrial growth rate in the same period.

In 2016, the machinery industry achieved a total of 24.55 trillion yuan in main business income, a year-on-year increase of 7.44%, an increase of 4.12 percentage points over the same period of the previous year, and 2.53 percentage points higher than that of the national industry in the same period. Judging from the trend of the whole year, the growth rate has increased month by month and has always been higher than the national industrial average in the same period.

In 2016, the total profit of the machinery industry was 1.68 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.54%, 3.08 percentage points higher than the same period last year.

Investment growth has slowed down

In 2016, the investment in fixed assets of the machinery industry continued to decline in recent years, with a total investment of 5.01 trillion yuan in 1~12 months, an increase of only 1.7% year-on-year, which was lower than the growth rate of investment in the whole society and manufacturing industry by 6.4 and 2.5 percentage points, and the growth rate of machinery industry investment fell sharply by 8 percentage points compared with the previous year, and the growth rate has fallen for five consecutive years.

The total value of imports and exports continued to decline

In 2016, the foreign trade of the machinery industry continued the weak trend of the previous year, and the total foreign trade volume continued to grow negatively. The total import and export volume for the whole year was 647.455 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 2.86%; Among them, imports were 272.7 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 1.82%, and the decline was narrower than that of the previous year; Exports were 374.8 billion US dollars, down 3.6% year-on-year, and have been negative growth for two consecutive years. The annual trade surplus was US$102.1 billion.

Product Highlights:

Three sectors are growing well

Sales of construction machinery products bottomed out, and according to statistics, 8 of the 10 main products achieved positive growth. After years of rapid growth, agricultural machinery products have declined at a high level, and according to statistics, the output of 8 of the 10 main products has declined.

According to the statistics of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the production and sales of automobiles in 2016 were 28.12 million and 28.02 million respectively, an increase of 14.5% and 13.7% year-on-year respectively, and the production and sales both exceeded 28 million units, setting a new record high and ranking 5656 in the world for eight consecutive years.

According to the statistics of the Machinery Industry Power Generation Equipment Center, the output of power generation equipment in 2016 was 115 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 8.4%.

Five categories are worth paying attention to

Passenger car production and sales totaled 24.42 million units and 24.38 million units, up 15.5% and 14.9% y/y, respectively.

The growth of environmental protection products is outstanding, and the special equipment for environmental pollution prevention and control in 1~12 months increased by 30.3% year-on-year, of which the air pollution prevention and control equipment increased by 29.65% year-on-year, and the water pollution prevention and control equipment increased by 37.04% year-on-year.

Internal combustion forklifts related to logistics and warehousing consumption increased by 7.68% year-on-year.Electric forkliftsThe year-on-year increase was 4.28%, and the post-harvest processing machinery increased by 16.69% year-on-year.

The annual production and sales of new energy vehicles were 517,000 and 507,000 respectively, an increase of 51.7% and 53% year-on-year, respectively. Electrical instrumentation increased by 18.54% year-on-year.

Industry keywords

Independent research and development

Breakthroughs have been made in the independent research and development of high-end equipment such as large-scale nuclear power, hydropower, thermal power and wind power equipment, ultra-high voltage AC and DC and flexible DC transmission and transformation equipment, key equipment for long-distance oil and gas pipelines, key equipment for large-scale coal chemical industry, and high-end CNC machine tools. For example, the world's first large-section horseshoe shield TBM was officially started in Shaanxi; The digital I&C system platform project for nuclear power plants jointly developed by Beijing Hollysys System Engineering Co., Ltd. passed the acceptance; The world's first fourth-generation nuclear power plant reactor pressure vessel independently developed by Shanghai Electric Nuclear Power Equipment Co., Ltd. was successfully hoisted at Huaneng Shidaowan Nuclear Power Plant; The reactor coolant pump equipment of Harbin Electric Power Group C4 project passed the acceptance; China Yituo has successfully developed a 200kN load vehicle with the first level of tractor performance test in China; New breakthroughs have been made in the technology of key components of UHV power transmission and transformation equipment.

Innovation capacity building

"Innovation-driven and innovation-guided" has become the independent choice of more and more enterprises, and the actual investment in innovation capacity building continues to increase. The basic test and testing platforms for new product research and development, such as large-scale compressor test benches, water wheel model test benches, and power station safety valve test benches, have been built one after another. At the same time, a number of test and testing platforms with the world's highest level have begun to be built.

Smart manufacturing

Under the guidance of relevant industrial policies, the digital transformation of China's traditional manufacturing field continues to be carried out, and the pace of informatization construction covering the whole process of enterprise production, operation and management has accelerated. At the same time, the intelligent manufacturing that integrates information technology such as the Internet and cloud computing, modern sensing technology, high-precision control technology and digital manufacturing technology has begun to take off in some fields. Taking industrial robots as an example, according to the statistics of the China Robot Industry Alliance, China has become the world's largest industrial robot consumer market for three consecutive years. It is expected that in 2016, the sales volume of robots in the Chinese market will still rank 5656th in the world.

A new path for transformation and development

Machinery enterprises actively explore new paths for development, new formats and new models continue to emerge. In order to promote the development of traditional industries to the manufacturing service industry, the China Machinery Industry Federation issued the "Guiding Opinions on the Development of Service-oriented Manufacturing in the Machinery Industry" to encourage enterprises to actively explore new paths for development. At present, the service-oriented manufacturing of the machinery industry has been fully extended to all major industries, realizing a complete service chain from R&D and design to product recycling, processing and remanufacturing. The development of service-oriented manufacturing has become an important way for the transformation and upgrading of machinery industry enterprises.

2017 Industry Outlook

Challenges From the perspective of the domestic situation, the downward pressure on economic operation is still very large, the weak domestic demand market for machinery products is difficult to improve significantly in the short term, the steel, coal, electricity, petroleum, chemical and other industries mainly served by the machinery industry are generally in the deep adjustment period of the industrial structure, and the demand for energy equipment is difficult to grow significantly in the short term. In addition, after years of rapid development, the social ownership of various mechanical products has reached a considerable scale, and the renovation and maintenance of in-service equipment has become an important part of the demand, which not only reduces the downward range of growth fluctuations, but also increases the difficulty of incremental recovery.

From the perspective of the international market, in 2017, in the context of the rise of global trade protectionism and the strengthening of anti-globalization tendencies, the world economy as a whole is expected to maintain a recovery momentum, but it is facing multiple risks and challenges, such as insufficient growth momentum, sluggish demand, repeated turbulence in financial markets, and continued sluggish trade and investment.

Opportunities From the perspective of the domestic market, the Central Economic Work Conference pointed out that 2017 is the year of deepening the supply-side structural reform, and it is necessary to focus on revitalizing the real economy, focusing on improving quality and core competitiveness, adhering to innovation-driven development, and expanding the supply of high-quality products and services. This is good for the machinery industry *5655.

At the same time, with the "Made in China 2025"

The in-depth promotion of various tasks, the implementation of special projects such as "strong foundation project" and "intelligent manufacturing" and major technological transformation and upgrading projects, and the driving role of industrial policies in the development and economic operation of the machinery industry will be further released. In addition, the implementation of key tasks and safeguard measures for the restructuring of the machinery industry to promote the transformation and increase efficiency is not only a continuation of the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" machinery industry adjustment and revitalization planning policy, but also the specific deployment and requirements for the development of the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" machinery industry, aiming at the shortcomings and crux of the contradiction in the development of the machinery industry, which is very instructive, pertinent and operational, providing a good policy environment for the development of the machinery industry and boosting the confidence and determination of the whole industry.

In the face of the international situation with multiple risks, the foreign trade, foreign cooperation and capital allocation of the machinery industry will inevitably face a new, more complex and changeable situation. The industry needs to actively explore new ways of development, with the help of the "Belt and Road" strategy, to maintain and enhance the position of China's machinery industry in the global market.

User prediction Cai Weici, deputy director of the user committee of the China Machinery Industry Federation, said that the machinery industry is expected to continue to stabilize and improve in 2017, and the industry will maintain steady growth, but the growth rate will be lower than in 2016. Specifically, it is expected that the annual growth rate of the added value of the machinery industry will be about 7%, the growth rate of main business income and profits will be about 6%, and the decline in the total export volume of foreign trade will not exceed the level of the previous year.