In the form of the epidemic, understand the rules of the "oil" drama and the trend of private oil service enterprises

The core factor of this round of oil price trend interpretation lies in the changes in the epidemic, and before the epidemic situation is clear, oil prices will not stabilize in the short term and will maintain a high volatility trend.

Analysts said that in the short term, the crack spread of refined oil products has fallen rapidly, which has reflected the weakening of terminal travel demand. In the long run, many institutions estimate that crude oil in 2022 will still be a cycle of accumulation, and the new strain may have multiple rounds of impact on demand, so they will maintain a bearish attitude towards oil prices in the first three quarters of 2022.

In terms of the deductive logic of this round of oil price trends, the core factor lies in the changes in the epidemic. In the long term, the global energy transition is one of the important influencing factors. In the long term, carbon neutrality means that both traditional oil supply and demand will be suppressed.

The emergence of demand substitution effect requires a significant increase in the market share of new energy in the traditional oil consumption field, and oil demand will remain rigid for a long time in the future.

On the supply side, traditional oil and gas companies have taken the lead in adapting to the energy transition, and upstream investment has become more cautious, and the recovery of upstream investment has been slow since the epidemic, and the recovery of crude oil supply has lagged behind the recovery of demand. Capacity bottlenecks in some oil-producing countries and a sharp slowdown in U.S. shale oil production growth, cautious upstream investment will lead to a decline in long-term supply elasticity, which will support oil prices in the medium to long term.

From a foreign point of view, the capital expenditure of foreign oil companies has a high correlation with international oil prices. In the context of changing international oil prices, private enterprises with a large proportion of overseas business are more affected by the changes in performance brought about by the rise and fall of international oil prices. In the cycle when oil prices stopped falling and rebounded, the order of income elasticity is: equipment manufacturing> oil service companies> oil companies, these types of companies are very synchronized with oil prices.

From a domestic point of view, the demand for product orders of domestic private oil service enterprises will decrease, the loss of oil prices will compress investment and cut expenditures, the original mining projects will be cancelled or postponed, and the scale of the oil service industry will shrink.Petroleum equipmentThe company's performance will be directly negatively affected, and the corresponding Sany Petroleum will also make adjustments according to market changes.