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Accelerate the planning and construction of a new energy system

2023.06.07
China Petroleum News Network

The report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China clearly stated that the planning and construction of a new energy system should be accelerated. Under the promotion of Chinese-style modernization and the general trend of global low-carbon energy transformation, the planning and construction of the new energy system should focus on the long term, with the goal of building a beautiful China and achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality in an orderly manner.

The latest strategic arrangements for energy development

The report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China made important arrangements for actively and steadily promoting carbon peak and carbon neutrality, proposing to "further promote the energy revolution, strengthen the clean and efficient use of coal, increase the exploration and development of oil and gas resources, increase reserves and production, accelerate the planning and construction of a new energy system, coordinate hydropower development and ecological protection, actively develop nuclear power in a safe and orderly manner, strengthen the construction of energy production, supply, storage and marketing system, and ensure energy security". Among them, accelerating the planning and construction of a new energy system is an important strategic arrangement for the future development of the energy field with the goal of strongly supporting the building of a modern socialist country in an all-round way, coordinating the stable energy supply and green and low-carbon development.

Building a new energy system is the long-term goal of China's energy transition. The new energy system consists of two parts: the new energy system and the new mechanism. Under the requirements of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, the new energy system in the future will be based on zero-carbon and low-carbon energy sources such as wind energy, solar energy, biomass energy, geothermal energy, and nuclear energy, supplemented by traditional fossil energy, and built by relying on advanced technology and industrial systems. The new mechanisms will be relevant mechanisms and policy systems that can adapt to and support the development and growth of the new energy system.

Building a new energy system is a strategic measure to adapt to the transformation of the global energy system. The World Energy Outlook 2021 released by the International Energy Agency proposes that the proportion of renewable energy will increase from 12% in 2020 to 67%, the proportion of nuclear energy will increase from 5% to 11%, the total amount of kerosene and gas will be reduced from 79% to 23%, the global final energy electrification rate will increase from 20% to 49%, and hydrogen energy will increase from zero to 6%. In 2021, the U.S. Department of State and the Office of the President issued the U.S. Long-Term Strategy: Pathways to Achieve Net-Zero Greenhouse Gas Emissions by 2050, proposing to take the lead in achieving carbon neutrality in the power system by 2035. In 2021, the EU put forward the goal of "energy system integration", making it clear that the new low-carbon energy system in the future will be characterized by high cycle efficiency, high electrification rate and low-carbon fuels. Japan's Carbon Neutral Green Growth Strategy for 2050 states that it will more than double the electrification rate by 2050 compared to the current level, and promote carbon neutrality in the power system with renewable energy and nuclear power as the main power sources. Judging from the judgment of international institutions and the strategic deployment of major economies towards carbon neutrality, the global energy system will transform in the direction of renewable energy, the coexistence of multiple energy sources, a significant increase in the terminal electrification rate, and the widespread application of hydrogen energy.

"New" is relative to the existing energy system. At present, China's energy system based on fossil energy resources cannot get rid of its high dependence on international oil and gas resources, and the high-carbon characteristics dominated by coal are also difficult to meet the requirements of carbon peak and carbon neutrality. To build a new energy system, it is necessary not only to meet the needs of various energy services at a high level, but also to help China get rid of the resource endowment disadvantage of "poor oil and less gas", improve the ability to ensure energy supply, and ensure that the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutrality is achieved as scheduled. In the long run, this is the only way for China to build a great modern socialist country. At the same time, the dynamic evolution process of the current energy system from the current energy system to the new energy system will inevitably face internal and external challenges, and it is necessary to establish new mechanisms and related policies that match the operation of the new energy system.

Seize the current opportunity to speed up planning and construction. At the beginning of 2022, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the National Energy Administration (NEA) issued the 14th Five-Year Plan for a Modern Energy System, proposing five goals: safer and more powerful energy security, remarkable results in low-carbon energy transformation, significant improvement in energy system efficiency, significant enhancement of innovation and development capabilities, and continuous improvement of universal service levels. The report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China is oriented to the needs of China's long-term development, and makes a strategic deployment to accelerate the planning and construction of a new energy system. At the end of 2022, the Central Economic Work Conference once again emphasized accelerating the planning and construction of a new energy system. It is worth noting that China's acceleration of planning and construction of a new energy system is not contradictory to the current supply system that mainly relies on "kerosene, gas, gas, electricity" to ensure supply. The fossil energy system can effectively assume the responsibility of energy security and supply, which brings rare opportunities for the development of the new energy system, which is conducive to focusing on expanding and strengthening the industrial chain and promoting the rapid development of the new energy industry.

The new energy industry ushered in a period of rapid development

After more than ten years of technology accumulation and industrial cultivation, China's photovoltaic, wind power, new energy vehicles and other industries have ushered in a period of rapid development. In particular, after the carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals were proposed, the installed capacity of wind power and photovoltaic power generation exceeded 100 million kilowatts per year. By the end of 2022, China's installed capacity of wind power, photovoltaic and biomass power generation reached 365 million kilowatts, 393 million kilowatts and 41.32 million kilowatts respectively, plus 413 million kilowatts of hydropower and 56.98 million kilowatts of nuclear power, and the installed capacity of non-fossil energy power generation reached 1.27 billion kilowatts, about 50% of the total installed power generation capacity of the country.

Centralized and distributed renewable energy power generation go hand in hand. In terms of centralized power construction, the total planned construction scale of large-scale wind power photovoltaic bases focusing on deserts, Gobi and desert areas is about 450 million kilowatts. By the end of 2022, the first batch of 95 million kilowatt base projects has all started construction, the second batch of base projects are being pushed forward, and the third batch of base projects are also in full swing. In terms of distributed power generation construction, in 2022, the country's new grid-connected installed capacity of distributed photovoltaic power generation will be 51.11 million kilowatts, reaching 157 million kilowatts by the end of that year.

The development of energy storage is changing with each passing day. By the end of 2022, the installed capacity of new energy storage projects in operation across the country reached 8.7 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of more than 110%, and the average energy storage duration was about 2.1 hours. Lithium-ion battery energy storage is the mainstay, and the diversified development trend of new energy storage technology is obvious. The new energy storage scale of lithium-ion batteries accounted for 94.2%, while compressed air energy storage and flow battery energy storage technologies accounted for 3.4% and 2.3% respectively, and the growth rate of the proportion accelerated significantly. A variety of energy storage technologies such as flywheel, gravity, and sodium ion have also entered the engineering demonstration stage.

The new energy vehicle industry is developing rapidly. In 2022, China's new energy vehicle sales will be 6.887 million, a year-on-year increase of 93.4%, the market penetration rate will reach 25.6%, and the number of new energy vehicles will exceed 13 million by the end of 2022. China is the world's largest production base for new energy vehicles. In 2022, the output of new energy vehicles will be 7.058 million units, which not only meets domestic demand, but also exports will reach 679,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 1.2 times.In addition, China has also accelerated the layout of smart grids, hydrogen energy production, storage, transportation and use, geothermal, biomass comprehensive utilization and other fields.

The international competitive advantage is highlighted

The whole photovoltaic industry chain has an international competitive advantage. The photovoltaic industry has formed a complete industrial chain from upstream raw material collection and processing, midstream cell module manufacturing and downstream photovoltaic power station construction and operation, and has become an industry that can simultaneously participate in international competition and achieve leading advantages in industrialization. In the manufacturing of polysilicon, silicon wafers, cells and modules, more than 5 companies rank among the top 10 in the world in terms of shipments, and have established factories in nearly 20 countries or regions. Photovoltaic technology continues to make new breakthroughs, Chinese enterprises and research institutions have repeatedly broken the conversion efficiency record of crystalline silicon cells, and the self-developed silicon heterojunction cell conversion efficiency is up to 26.81%.

The fan industry has reached the international advanced level. China has built the world's largest wind power equipment production base, accounting for more than two-thirds of the world's output, and has built a mature industrial chain covering wind power development and construction, equipment manufacturing, technology research and development, testing and certification, and supporting services. The level of wind power technology has been continuously improved, the key core technologies have been basically mastered, and breakthroughs have been made in the development of wind turbines suitable for low wind speed and harsh environments, and the development of large-capacity units has basically kept pace with the world. The degree of localization of wind turbine products has reached more than 90%, and a series of new products such as 18 MW offshore wind turbines, twin-rotor floating offshore wind power platforms, and onshore twin-wind turbines have been successfully developed, which not only significantly improves the efficiency of wind energy utilization, but also reflects that China's wind turbine industry is in a period of rapid development with highly active scientific and technological innovation.

The new energy vehicle industry has a first-mover advantage. At present, China's new energy vehicle production accounts for 60% of the world's largest exporter, and has established an efficient and complete industrial chain and supply chain system. There are more than 300 new energy vehicle models on sale in China, accounting for two-thirds of the world, and local brands account for 81% of the domestic electric vehicle market. The new energy vehicle industry has reached the world's advanced level in the three major fields of battery, electronic control and electric drive, and has solid technical accumulation in technological innovation and mode innovation in the fields of autonomous driving and intelligent networking.

In addition, China has accumulated valuable experience in promoting the rapid development of new energy. In terms of promoting the development of renewable energy, we have established and improved a number of mechanisms such as monitoring the development and utilization of new energy grid connection and consumption, filing and approval of grid-connected access, priority guarantee and priority scheduling, and consumption guarantee, and formulated various measures and service management rules for distributed generation access. In terms of improving the grid-connected consumption capacity of new energy, a guarantee mechanism for renewable electricity consumption, a multi-guarantee mechanism for grid-connected electricity, and a regular publication mechanism for grid-connected consumption and predictive analysis results have been introduced. Power grid companies have introduced priority dispatch and clean dispatch mechanisms to give priority to renewable energy power generation. In terms of improving the market transactions of new energy power generation, we will accelerate the development of the market mechanism for the distribution and sale of electricity, and promote the development of new energy by market means. At present, there are about 5,000 registered electricity sales companies nationwide, and nearly 500 pilot projects for incremental distribution business. Some of these incremental power distribution projects have carried out beneficial explorations in distributed energy access, integrated energy services, local consumption of renewable energy, and customized power services. In the first half of 2022, the average utilization rate of wind power and photovoltaic power was 95.8% and 97.7% respectively.

Characteristics of future development trends

China's future new energy system needs to have the following trend characteristics.

The first is to take new energy as the main body to improve the overall level of safety and security. By 2050, the installed power generation capacity will account for 78% of the total installed capacity, the power generation capacity will account for 75% of the country's electricity consumption, and the total amount of new energy will account for 51% of the total primary energy. Fossil fuels such as kerosene, gas and gas and non-fossil energy such as hydropower will be used as an important source of energy replenishment and supply capacity guarantee, and will play a role in peacetime reserves, response to peak loads and emergency supply guarantee according to their own characteristics. Oil imports are expected to fall to 200 million tonnes in 2050, down 60% from current levels; Natural gas imports are expected to drop to about 150 billion cubic meters, and the overall dependence on foreign energy will drop to less than 10%, greatly easing the pressure on import security.

The second is the deep cleaning of terminal energy. The main way to use new energy is to convert it to electricity, and some can be further converted to hydrogen as fuel. In order to adapt to the transformation of energy use, the proportion of electricity and hydrogen in the final energy will continue to increase. By 2050, China's terminal electrification rate needs to increase to more than 50%, and the proportion of hydrogen energy needs to increase to more than 10%.

Third, the system form presents a coordinated interaction of multiple energy grids, loads and storage. In the new energy system, new business formats such as distributed generation and heating, user-side energy storage, smart microgrids, active distribution networks, and hydrogen energy storage continue to develop, and new business models such as producers and sellers, aggregators, and integrated energy services for electricity, heating and cooling are emerging.

Fourth, digitalization comprehensively empowers the construction of a new energy system. Digitalization is an important technical means to promote system integration, and promoting digital technology to deeply empower all aspects of source, grid, load and storage, realize the integration of electricity, heat, cooling, and gas networks, multi-energy complementarity, and global scheduling optimization, which can significantly improve the comprehensive utilization rate of energy resources. Digitalization can also transform high-value data on the energy network into production factors, cultivate new industries, create more economic value, and use the positive externalities of digital technology to offset some of the transformation costs of traditional energy systems.

Fifth, it has strong system toughness. The frequency and intensity of extreme weather and events are likely to increase in the future, which will put forward higher requirements for the resilience of the energy system. In the reality that the output of a single wind power and photovoltaic power source is unstable and susceptible to weather, the flexible scheduling and coordinated operation of the entire energy system will play an increasingly important role in ensuring the security of energy supply. At the same time, after the deep integration of energy system and digital technology, the prevention and control system combining active and passive defense is also established to effectively ensure the normal operation safety of the system and the stable operation under extreme conditions.

Sixth, we will build a new energy equipment industry chain with a core control and global layout. The construction of a new energy system will reduce the dependence on fossil energy resource endowment, and at the same time, it will put forward higher requirements for the new energy equipment manufacturing industry with leading technology and complete chain. From the perspective of the objective law of industrial development, the global new energy industry has entered a stage of rapid development. Building an equipment industry chain that controls the core and global layout, which can not only serve the domestic market, but also participate in international market competition, is the key direction of the future development of China's energy industry, and is also the only way to finally achieve the goal of becoming an energy power.

Seventh, keep pace with the times and adjust the relevant mechanisms and policy systems for energy development. To adapt to the dynamic evolution of the new energy system, the energy market mechanism, price mechanism, scientific research mechanism, regulatory system, industry policy, fiscal and taxation policy, financial support, etc. need to be adjusted and dynamically optimized in a timely manner, so as to guide the development of the new energy system and escort it.

Develop and expand the new energy system as soon as possible

While promoting the traditional energy industry to become bigger and stronger, and ensuring near-term energy security, we should focus on building a new energy system in the long run, and the top priority is to develop and expand the new energy system as soon as possible. The 14th Five-Year Plan period is a critical period for building a new energy system, and it is important to take into account both short-term challenges and long-term development. At present, the new energy system still faces many challenges: how to solve the large-scale grid-connected consumption and achieve sustained and rapid development; How to establish a new energy equipment industry chain and supply chain with leading technology, independent and controllable, and global layout, and enhance industrial competitiveness; How to actively improve the policy system and form a soft environment conducive to the development of the new energy system. At the same time, it is also necessary to make long-term arrangements to promote the steady transformation of the traditional fossil fuel industry and achieve an orderly exit.

The first is to seize the window period of energy demand growth, focus on improving infrastructure, and support the sustained and rapid development of new energy. In 2022, China's total energy consumption will exceed 5.4 billion tons of standard coal, which is still far from the total energy consumption control target of 6 billion tons proposed in the "Energy Production and Consumption Revolution Strategy (2016-2030)". To make good use of the limited incremental space and support new energy to become the main body of incremental development, it is urgent to accelerate infrastructure construction. For example, to support the construction of large wind power and photovoltaic bases, it is necessary to strengthen demonstration or speed up the construction of transmission channels; To support the development of distributed power generation, it is necessary to promote the construction of intelligent active distribution network and improve the autonomous dispatching and regulation capabilities of local power grids. As electric vehicles enter a stage of rapid development, it is urgent to accelerate the layout of two-way charging piles, charging networks and other infrastructure, and explore an effective path to use electric vehicles as a power grid regulation resource; accelerate R&D and piloting hydrogen infrastructure in some regions; Carry out pilot infrastructure construction for biomass energy collection, transportation and centralized processing, and explore feasible operation models; Wait a minute. The construction of these infrastructures often requires cross-departmental and multi-field joint efforts, and it is necessary to strengthen overall and coordinated planning.

The second is to strive to build a new energy equipment industry chain and supply chain with leading technology, safety and resilience. China has initially formed a relatively complete new energy equipment industry chain supply chain, facing the future construction of a new energy system, the new energy equipment industry chain will be the cornerstone of supporting national energy security. In this regard, it is still necessary to insist on making up for each other's strengths, especially to lay out basic and public technology research and development such as new materials, integrated chips, and simulation design software, expand the scope of industrial chain extension, and consolidate the industrial foundation. Give full play to the advantages of China's new national system, create a fair competition environment for scientific research, and stimulate the innovation enthusiasm of various enterprises, universities and scientific research institutions. Improve the domestic new energy and other low-carbon technology standard system, establish and improve the relevant certification service system. Actively participate in the formulation of relevant international standards and industrial norms, and gradually enhance China's voice in the development of international green energy. Promote renewable energy equipment and technologies, systems and services to go global. We will vigorously promote the construction of the green "Belt and Road", steadily expand the "circle of friends" of green energy, accelerate international scientific research, industrial cooperation and operational cooperation in green energy and low-carbon technologies, and form a new driving force for green and low-carbon development with win-win cooperation.

The third is to take the expansion of the new energy system as the starting point, build a new energy system, and form an institutional mechanism to adapt to its development. Accelerate the reform of various energy markets, and establish trading rules to support the rapid development of various new energy sources. Facing the market, we will improve the pricing mechanisms such as peak and valley prices, two-part prices, and ladder prices, give full play to the decisive role of the market in allocating resources, fully tap the potential of energy network mutual assistance, make good use of the adjustable resources on the demand side, and improve the level of security under normal conditions. Promote the reform of the system of power grids, heat networks and other industries, strengthen supervision while expanding market access, and improve the basic energy demand guarantee mechanism. Improve the construction of the carbon market, and guide the energy industry to gradually promote green and low-carbon transformation.

Fourth, promote the transformation of traditional energy and create favorable conditions for the construction of a new energy system. China's traditional energy transition focuses on coal, which is the main energy source in China and the cornerstone of current energy security. As of 2022, there are about 4,400 coal mines, with a coal output of about 4.5 billion tons, and more than 10 railway coal transportation channels have been built, with an annual capacity of 2.4 billion tons. In order to ensure the safe operation of the power system, the installed capacity of thermal power units, mainly coal-fired power units, has reached 1.33 billion kilowatts. In the long run, the transformation of the coal industry is of great significance for itself and for the development of coal-rich regions. As it involves multiple fields and regions, it is necessary to make overall planning as soon as possible, implement coal transformation in an orderly and gradual manner, and realize the high-quality development of the entire coal industry.

In recent years, relying on the R&D, manufacturing and service system of Sany Group, Sany Energy has been committed to providing safe, intelligent and environmentally friendly digital integrated solutions for global oil exploration and development, adhering to the concept of "quality changes the world, creating high-quality products, and creating value for customers", and has contributed to ensuring national energy security and achieving the "double carbon" goal.

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