The new energy industry achieves a key "coming-of-age ceremony"

Following the full entry of coal power into the market, the market-oriented reform of electricity has once again ushered in important policies after four years.

On February 9, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the National Energy Administration (NEA) jointly issued the Notice on Deepening the Market-oriented Reform of New Energy Feed-in Tariffs and Promoting the High-quality Development of New Energy (hereinafter referred to as the "Notice") to promote all new energy on-grid electricity such as wind power and solar power generation to enter the electricity market, and the feed-in tariff is formed through market transactions.

Reshape the new energy map with the "hand of the market".

In recent years, China's new energy industry has entered the fast lane of high-quality development. By the end of 2024, the installed capacity of new energy power generation will be about 1.41 billion kilowatts, accounting for more than 40% of the country's total installed power capacity, which has surpassed the installed capacity of coal power.

However, with the rapid growth of new energy installations, some contradictory problems have gradually surfaced. The feed-in tariff for new energy is fixed, which cannot fully reflect the relationship between market supply and demand, and does not fairly assume the responsibility for power system regulation. Deepening the market-oriented reform of new energy feed-in tariffs has become an urgent task for the new energy industry.

At present, the progress of technology has made new energy power generation more and more economical, and the gradual improvement of the power market in various places has made the conditions for new energy to enter the market in an all-round way have been ripe.

The "Notice" adheres to classified policies, distinguishes between existing projects and incremental projects, establishes a price settlement mechanism for the sustainable development of new energy, maintains the policy convergence of existing projects, and stabilizes the income expectations of incremental projects. Compared with the previous fixed feed-in tariff, the introduction of the new policy encourages all new energy feed-in electricity to enter the market, shifting from government pricing to market pricing, supplemented by a buffer mechanism for price difference compensation for existing projects.

The industry believes that the new energy market-oriented reform is bound to reconstruct the whole industry. The market-oriented price mechanism will guide the scientific allocation of resources in the field of new energy, and become a "good prescription" to promote the efficient investment and construction of new energy projects and promote the high-quality development of the industry.

"The establishment of a market-based electricity price mechanism will help new energy to fairly assume the responsibility for power system regulation. This will make the value of various power sources in the power system fully reflected. Lin Boqiang, dean of the China Energy Policy Research Institute of Xiamen University, said in an interview with a reporter from China Energy Media. New energy and traditional energy sources such as coal power have entered the electricity market, and the feed-in tariff is formed by the market, which will further expand the scope of electricity market-based trading.

Industry insiders said that the new energy feed-in tariff is fully formed by the market, and the implementation of support measures for the classification of stock increments is conducive to the formation of real market prices, promoting the efficient allocation of power resources, and guiding the healthy and orderly development of the new energy industry. The value of various power sources in the power system will be more fully reflected, better guide the coordinated development of new energy, regulated power supply and power grid, and help build a more efficient and coordinated new power system.

The "Steady Helm" and "Sailing" of "Mechanism Electricity Price"

The establishment of a price settlement mechanism for the sustainable development of new energy is a highlight of this reform.

The "Notice" points out that after the new energy participates in the electricity market transaction, a mechanism for the settlement of price differences shall be established outside the market, and the level of new energy electricity prices (hereinafter referred to as the "mechanism price"), the scale of electricity and the implementation period shall be specified by the provincial price authorities in conjunction with the provincial energy authorities and power operation authorities.

The "Notice" clarifies that the scale of electricity shall be properly connected with the current relevant electricity scale policies with a guaranteed nature by all localities; The mechanism electricity price will be implemented in accordance with the current price policy, and will not be higher than the local benchmark price of coal-fired power.

The mechanism implements a policy of "refunding more and making up less" for the included electricity, that is, when the market transaction price is lower than the mechanism electricity price, the price difference will be compensated, and the price difference will be deducted when it is higher than the mechanism electricity price. The relevant person in charge of the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration pointed out in response to reporters' questions that this kind of price difference settlement method allows enterprises to have reasonable and stable expectations.

"The design of the mechanism electricity price in this reform solves the problem of the connection between the old and new mechanisms. Although market-based pricing will bring certain revenue fluctuations to new energy power generation enterprises, with this settlement mechanism, enterprises can effectively alleviate the impact of price fluctuations, which is conducive to the stable development of the industry. Zhang Chuanming, chairman of Kyushu Energy, told China Energy Media reporters.

In addition, the "Notice" proposes that when implementing the price settlement mechanism for the sustainable development of new energy, it is necessary to distinguish between stock and incremental projects, adopt "new and old divisions", and implement differentiated management with June 1, 2025 as the node. The new projects will be fully market-based bidding.

"This arrangement of old projects and new projects and new methods can not only maintain the smooth operation of existing projects, but also determine the mechanism electricity price of incremental projects through market-oriented methods, which is conducive to better playing the role of the market." Chen Dayu, vice president of the Energy Research Institute of Huaneng Group, pointed out that the differential management of existing and incremental projects can improve investment efficiency and promote the sustainable development of the new energy industry.

The person in charge of a photovoltaic power generation company admitted to reporters: "The stock projects will not participate in the bidding for the time being, leaving us a window period for transformation." However, in the future, the flexibility of power plants must be improved, otherwise they will also face the risk of being eliminated from the market. ”

The market-oriented reform of new energy electricity prices in an all-round way indicates that the development path of new energy and its related products will undergo profound changes, and its development trend will be driven by market mechanisms to a greater extent in the future.

From "lying to earn" to "fine operation"

Under the market-oriented pricing and price difference settlement mechanism, the income stability and electricity price change trend of new energy enterprises have attracted much attention.

One in JiangsuPhotovoltaic modulesIn the factory, the slogan on the wall "the cost of electricity decreases by 0.01 yuan, and the survival probability increases by 10%" is particularly eye-catching. The general manager of the company calculated an account for the reporter: under the market-based electricity price, the power generation efficiency will be increased by 1%, and the annual income can be increased by 3 million yuan. "We now operate the power station as a financial product, and the inclination adjustment of each module and the response speed of each inverter are picking out the details."

This metamorphosis is taking place across the industry, but not all "players" can adapt.

"The old days of lying down and making money are over." A practitioner of a new energy power generation company revealed to reporters that the entry of new energy into the market may have a "negative impact" on new energy electricity prices in the short term. In this regard, new energy enterprises need to pay more attention to cost control and technological innovation in the process of project development and operation, and improve the profitability and market competitiveness of projects by improving power generation efficiency and reducing operating costs.

After the new energy enters the market, it will bear the regulatory cost of the power grid system, which means that wind power and photovoltaic power will develop in tandem with energy storage and thermal power flexibility transformation, so as to truly realize the multi-energy complementarity of "wind, solar, water, fire and storage". Regulating resources such as virtual power plants and new energy storage may become a solution for regulating the cost of new energy.

"It is necessary to improve the corresponding supporting measures. In terms of profit model, we will promote the construction of the green certificate and green power market, reasonably reflect the environmental value of green power, support direct transactions between new energy and users, and avoid the risk of market fluctuations. Lin Boqiang said.

What impact will the issuance of the Notice have on the level of electricity prices for end users? The relevant person in charge of the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration said that the reform has no impact on the electricity price level of residents and agricultural users. For industrial and commercial users, static estimates, it is expected that in the first year of the implementation of the reform, the average electricity price of industrial and commercial users in the country will be basically the same as that of the previous year, and it may decline slightly in areas where electricity supply and demand are loose and the price of new energy markets is low, and the electricity price of subsequent industrial and commercial users will fluctuate with the supply and demand of electricity and the development of new energy.

Marketization is not the end of reform. The operation of the market is the result of continuous competition between the main bodies, and the purpose of the new energy comprehensive market entry policy is also to promote the development of the industry by promoting the competition of new energy. The means of determining the feed-in tariff through market-based bidding and realizing the "separation between the old and the new" with the "mechanism electricity price" not only respects the achievements of historical development, but also clarifies a scientific path for future development, closely links the past and future of the new energy industry, lays a solid foundation for building a new energy system and in-depth reform of the power system, and helps the new energy industry move towards a new stage of high-quality development.