Construction machinery: winter to change the spring with the bucket handle back

Review and outlook Ten years of trials and hardships, construction machinery and a new starting point

Take the excavator andPump trucksThe construction machinery industry represented by the company has experienced a relatively complete cycle in sales from 2006 to 2016. Standing at the current point in time, we believe that construction machinery is entering a new era, and the core driving force comes from "the return of the marketization of demand, and the marketization of production capacity". The production capacity of the supply side is gradually shrinking, the demand for renewal on the demand side is gradually emerging, and the infrastructure continues to develop. After the market is overcorrected, it will still return to its original growth trajectory and maintain stable growth.

Changes in macro demand: The proportion of real estate demand is gradually weakening, and non-real estate factors are increasing

The core application areas of construction machinery are real estate and infrastructure. In the past, real estate demand could dominate excavator sales, but we found that the contribution ratio of real estate and infrastructure decreased from 0.93:1 in 2012 to 0.67:1 in 2016. From the structural and regional characteristics of excavator sales, we find that since the second half of 2016, large-scale infrastructure projects, mines and PPP projects have provided sufficient incremental demand.

Micro demand changes are being digested by the stock of equipment, and the demand for renewal is dominant

Since the second half of 2016, the demand for construction machinery products represented by excavators has picked up significantly, excavators have grown by more than 50% in sales for 5 consecutive months, behind the recovery of demand, we found through calculations that the equipment utilization rate of excavator stock has reached a critical point, the current growth rate of excavator ownership is only 1-2%, the proportion of updated demand for excavators has reached two-thirds of the endogenous actual demand, and has gradually become the leading force in excavator demand, from the perspective of time trend, 2015-2016 is the embodiment of updated demand* Two years of clarity. At the same time, the decentralization of second-hand mobile phones is also gradually accelerating, and the demand for renewal is expected to be released in the next few years.

The market share of the industry's leading enterprises continues to increase, and the profit base is gradually recovering

After experiencing the low tide of industry demand, the market share of the industry has gradually tilted towards the leading enterprises of the industry, and the market concentration of the industry has gradually increased in the past few years.Domestic brandIn this process, it has quietly risen, in 2016, the market share of domestic brands exceeded 50%, Japanese and Korean brands have fallen all the way, and the leading enterprise Sany Heavy Industry has a market share of 20% in the field of excavators in 2016. With the recovery of demand, the profit base of the industry's leading enterprises is also gradually recovering.

At the current stage, the demand for construction machinery products represented by excavators is still in the recovery stage, and the market is generally concerned about the sustainability of demand, especially the concern about the growth rate of real estate investment. We believe that the real estate demand in the current excavator demand structure is gradually weakening, non-real estate projects are still continuing to grow steadily, and the renewal demand is forming a medium and long-term supporting force.

The macroeconomic environment, especially real estate investment, is uncertain, which in turn affects the level of industry demand; Fluctuations in raw material prices affect corporate profit margins; Intensified competition in the industry has led to a decline in gross profit margin.