"Excavator" tells you the trend of China's economy in 2017

If you want to know the trend of the economy in the coming year, you may be able to clearly understand it from this "down-to-earth" indicator.

When it comes to excavators, many people first think of "which one is stronger in excavation technology". However, don't underestimate the excavator's data, and you may be able to find a unique perspective on China's economy.

The reason why excavator data is so important is because the excavator is an obvious indicator of the activity of the project, which can reflect the performance of industrial production and infrastructure industry to a certain extent, so as to provide us with a basis for judging the economic trend.

Generally speaking, during the Spring Festival, most of the workers have gone home for the New Year, which should be the traditional off-season for engineering projects, but in the Spring Festival of 2017, the sales of excavators have only increased.

The supply and marketing of the excavator industry are booming

Judging from the sales data, the sales of excavators in the off-season in January alone achieved a rapid growth of 54%, and looking back at four months, the sales volume increased by as much as 70% year-on-year.

The strong demand for excavators has naturally led to the increase in excavator production.

Since the second half of 2016, the output of excavators has gradually increased. From January to February this year, the output of excavators reached 22,381 units, an increase of 55.9% year-on-year.

This year's supply and demand of excavators are booming, showing that the domestic industrial production and infrastructure industry are performing well, and economic activities are strong.

According to Goldman Sachs' estimates, the direct contribution of infrastructure and real estate to GDP reached 2.3 percentage points in 2016, and the indirect and direct effects combined are even greater. Haitong Securities believes that the rebound of infrastructure and real estate has played an important role in stabilizing the economy.

What is the future of the economy? In a certain sense, it is also an excavator, and it is difficult to also excavate.

The so-called Chengye excavator refers to the financial afterburner, a large number of PPP projects in 2017, infrastructure investment will continue to be the engine of the economy; The so-called difficult excavator refers to how long the economic growth momentum can last only by relying on infrastructure investment.

From the perspective of private investment, the internal economic growth momentum of the economy, its recovery needs to be improved. In 2016, the growth rate of private investment was only 3.2%, less than half of the overall growth rate of investment (8.1%), not to mention the previous years when the growth rate of private investment was higher than the overall growth rate.

The economic recovery is already certain. The key is that after the warming, will it be midsummer or spring cold?