China's equipment industry is developing intelligently and high-end

In 2017, China's equipment industry will accelerate its development, and the growth rate of industrial added value will continue to rise compared with last year, and it is expected to remain at about 11% throughout the year; The value of export deliveries will increase compared with last year, and the cumulative growth rate is expected to be around 2% in 2017.

Users believe that China's equipment industry will show a new development trend, and rail transit equipment, additive manufacturing, and general aviation will become new growth highlights. The automobile industry has maintained steady growth, the operation of the machinery industry will continue to diverge, the shipbuilding industry will gradually improve, the development of intelligent manufacturing will accelerate, and the innovation and development of high-end equipment will make new improvements.

The opportunities outweigh the challenges

2016 is the first year of the "13th Five-Year Plan", stimulated by a series of industrial development policies, the economic operation of China's equipment industry is generally stable. Looking forward to 2017, the development opportunities and challenges of China's equipment industry coexist, both domestic economic growth is stable, supply-side structural reform policy effect and other positive factors, and domestic and foreign demand continues to be sluggish, enterprises are facing difficulties beyond expectations and other unfavorable factors, but overall the opportunities are greater than the challenges.

Although the world economic situation is still severe, with the gradual in-depth implementation and implementation of China's three major regional development strategies, medium and long-term manufacturing power construction strategies and accelerating international production capacity and equipment manufacturing cooperation, new growth points, growth poles and growth belts will gradually take shape, the domestic economy will maintain steady growth, and the promoting factors of various industrial policies will gradually emerge. In particular, the implementation of five special projects related to "Made in China 2025" related supporting "strong industrial base" and "intelligent manufacturing" will accelerate the structural adjustment, transformation and upgrading of the equipment industry. In terms of exports, the weak recovery trend of the global economy in 2017 is difficult to improve, but due to the "13th Five-Year Plan" period China will take the equipment industry as a new export-leading industry to cultivate and develop, the "Belt and Road" strategy and the "Guiding Opinions on Promoting International Production Capacity and Equipment Manufacturing Cooperation" to accelerate the implementation, China's equipment product export growth is expected to accelerate the rebound.

The sub-industries will continue to differentiate, and the advantages of high-end equipment will be highlighted

In 2016, the overall operation of the machinery industry was stable, and the main economic indicators maintained a slight upward trend, but the differentiation of the operation trend between industries was more prominent. The construction machinery industry as a whole is still difficult, especially the decline in the efficiency of large and medium-sized enterprises has not changed, and the loss area continues to expand; Orders in the petrochemical general machinery industry continued to be insufficient, and industry profits continued to decline; The machine tool industry is still sluggish; Driven by market demand, favorable policies and large-scale upgrading and transformation in the fields of power generation and power transmission and transformation, the instrumentation and electrical industries have played a driving role in promoting the stability and improvement of the machinery industry. It is expected that in 2017, there are still many uncertain factors affecting the economic operation of the industry, the demand for foreign trade is not strong, the downward trend of investment will not be significantly improved, and the downward pressure on the operation of the industry is still large. However, with the gradual implementation of the national macro-control policy and the improvement of the economic situation, the economic operation of the industry is expected to continue to be stable.

In 2016, driven by a series of national industrial policies, the development of high-end equipment manufacturing industry has achieved remarkable results, and the proportion of output value in equipment manufacturing industry has gradually increased. The "13th Five-Year Plan" outline proposes that in the next five years, China will implement high-end equipment innovation and development projects, including eight major industries such as aerospace equipment. The "High-end Equipment Innovation Project Implementation Guide (2016~2020)" clearly proposes to concentrate resources and strive to break through a number of high-end equipment such as large aircraft, aero engines and gas turbines, civil aerospace, advanced rail transit equipment, energy-saving and new energy vehicles, marine engineering equipment and high-tech ships, and complete sets of smart grid equipment, so as to improve industrial innovation and development capabilities and international competitiveness.

It is expected that in 2017, in addition to the long-term favorable policies, with the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry and the promotion of localization substitution, the domestic and foreign market demand for high-end equipment manufacturing is huge, and the innovation and development of high-end equipment has become the main trend of the future development of the manufacturing industry. The innovation and development of high-end equipment with the goal of industrial application will be accelerated, a number of iconic and driving key products and major equipment will be accelerated, the level of independent design and system integration capabilities, and the technical level of core component development will be gradually improved, and the industrial innovation ability will be continuously enhanced. With the engineering and industrial application of a number of major equipment, high-end equipment, as a "new business card" of the equipment manufacturing industry, will drive the overall improvement of the level of China's equipment manufacturing industry.

Market pressures remain

Judging the current market situation faced by the equipment industry, CCID think tank users believe that in the coming period, the market demand for some products will continue to be sluggish. Affected by the downturn in upstream industries such as steel, cement, petroleum, electric power, and shipping, the market demand for equipment products continues to decline, and the orders of enterprises in construction machinery, heavy mining machinery, petrochemical general machinery, shipbuilding and other related industries are obviously insufficient. In 1~9 months last year, the investment in fixed assets of the equipment industry increased by 1.54% year-on-year, a new low in the growth rate of the same period since 2008, which was lower than the growth rate of fixed asset investment in the whole society and the manufacturing industry by 6.66 and 1.56 percentage points, and was also lower than the growth rate of investment in the equipment industry by 7.16 percentage points last year.

Exports are still under pressure. At present, the road to international economic recovery is still tortuous, and the overall demand of the international market is still weak. The sluggish economic environment has forced many governments to protect the domestic market through indirect, non-tariff trade barriers and protective competition regulations, and China is still facing greater trade protection pressure in the international market, and the export of equipment manufacturing enterprises has increased the tendency to encounter trade barriers such as technology, green environmental protection, and standards.

The pressure on corporate financing is increasing. Although the central bank has cut the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates many times in 2016, banks are reluctant to lend and some enterprises are reluctant to lend. At present, the financing cost of some private shipbuilding enterprises has been as high as 8%~12%, and the financing difficulties of enterprises have led to the difficulty of opening the letter of guarantee, and many new ship orders have been lost. According to this, it is expected that the production and operation of equipment enterprises will still face great difficulties.

In response to the above problems, CCID think tank users suggest that the accelerated development of the equipment industry should promote the adjustment of industrial structure and layout, including optimizing the product structure, optimizing the organizational structure, and optimizing the spatial layout; strengthen the capacity of independent innovation; accelerate the development level of intelligent manufacturing; Encourage enterprises to go out and bring in the combination, support and guide domestic advantageous equipment enterprises to accelerate the pace of "going out", and promote rail transit equipment, power equipment, petrochemical metallurgical equipment, automobiles, construction machinery, agricultural machinery, aviation equipment, ships and marine engineering equipment and other advantageous areas of enterprises to "go out".

At this year's local "two sessions", "real economy" once again entered the local "two sessions" hot word list, and "intelligent manufacturing" was widely popular in many places. Users believe that in the future, the pattern of China's manufacturing industry turning to high-end equipment manufacturing in the east, industrial upgrading in the central region, and breakthroughs in advantageous industries in the west is expected to accelerate, and intelligent manufacturing will become a new breakthrough in the manufacturing industry.