Can this year's sales break the myth of 2011?

"One of the agents I know sold 300 units in one day yesterday." An employee of Sany Heavy Machinery told reporters in early March.

He's talking about excavators. China's excavator sales in February made everyone in the industry talk about a little excited, 14,530 units, an increase of 298% over the same period last year. Over the years, the sales of excavators in March were much greater than those in February, which made many people think of the sales in March, and recalled the "excavator myth" in 2011 while thinking about this problem: a total of 170,000 units were sold in the country that year, reaching a historical peak. However, industry insiders told reporters that the sales of excavators in March are likely to be only slightly higher than in February, and will not be what most people think.

The "excavator myth" is revived: sales in February increased by 298% year-on-year

Because it is widely used in various projects, the sales volume of "excavators" has always been a barometer to examine the investment in the real economy.

After entering 2017, the change of this parameter has attracted the attention of industry insiders.

According to the statistics of the excavation machinery branch of the China Construction Machinery Industry Association, from January to February 2017, the 26 host manufacturers included in the statistics of the branch sold a total of 19,077 units of various excavation machinery products, an increase of 188.9% over the same period last year, of which 4,547 units were sold in January, a year-on-year increase of 54%, and 14,530 units were sold in February, a year-on-year increase of 298%.

This is a data that makes many people staggering, because of the Spring Festival, traditionally January and February is the off-season for the start of the project, which is naturally the off-season for excavator sales, but this year's sales have soared unusually.

The surprise is understandable. Because in 2015, the entire excavator industry was still at a historical low.

Excavator sales from 2006 to 2016 (unit: units)

In the 10 years from 2006 to 2016, the excavator industry has gone through an industry cycle of "rise-peak-decline". In 2006, excavator sales reached 46,000 units, increased to a peak of 176,000 units in 2011, and then fell to 59,000 units in 2015 after five consecutive years of decline. Therefore, the market in 2011 is also known as the "excavator myth".

However, from the second half of 2016, the market began to take a turn for the better. 70.6%, 71.4%, 72.7%, 75%, and the sales volume increased by more than 70% for four consecutive months from September to December.

Excavator sales in 2016 (unit: units)

Shen Jianguang, managing director and * economist of Mizuho Securities Asia, said that from a cyclical point of view, the excavator industry and the macroeconomic boom cycle are highly overlapping. For example, from the perspective of the relationship with industrial added value, from 2008 to 2010, economic volatility first fell sharply due to the impact of the overseas financial crisis, and then rebounded significantly thanks to the economic stimulus package. During the same period, the sales of excavators in 2008 at 105% growth rate quickly fell to the end of 2008 -33%, but since the second half of 2009 there has been a positive growth, until the end of the year rebounded to 136%.

The trend of the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) is also consistent with the change in the excavator market. After experiencing a trough of 38.8% in 2008, it began to rise, and from 2009 to 2011, it was above the 50% line, and began to decline at the end of 2011, and then hovered around 50% until the second half of 2016. China's PMI in February 2017 was 51.6%, higher than the boom and bust line for seven consecutive months. According to user analysis, this means that the operating rate of enterprises will increase after the Spring Festival, and the overall macro economy will maintain a stable and positive trend.

China's Manufacturing Managers' Index (Source: National Bureau of Statistics) from February 2016 to February 2017

Industry leader Sany Heavy Machinery: Where PPP is done well, where sales are good

What causes the change in excavator sales? The reporter visited Sany Heavy Machinery, a leading domestic excavator industry, located in Shanghai Lingang Industrial ParkMedium-sized excavatorsManufacturers look for answers.

Hu Qi, general manager of Sany Heavy Machinery, told reporters that the changes in the industry occurred in September 2016, "the number of people and orders that came to consult suddenly increased." ”

Sany Heavy Machinery's current market share of excavators in China is 24.2%, ranking in the industry of *5656, which is more than the combined sales of the second and third places. According to Hu Qi, the market of excavators is directly and positively related to investment. "Any project starts, *5656 wave market is definitely an excavator. For example, to build a road, the earthwork must be dug out first, and then the cranes and trucks will be used. Among them, excavators are divided into large, medium and small. Large excavators are mainly used in mining, medium-sized excavators are used in infrastructure projects such as large roads and bridges, and small excavators are used in house renovation.

Sany Heavy Machinery sales * 5661 medium-sized excavators: 215C

Shanghai Lingang Industrial Park mainly produces medium-sized excavators, Hu Qi said, the market of medium-sized excavators is relatively late, probably from February. Until the eleventh and twelfth days of the Spring Festival in 2017, he still felt that the 700 units in stock might be a bit much, and considered reducing the planned output for this year, but more than 300 units were sold in February alone, "The remaining 400 units in March are definitely not enough to sell." Hu Qi said.

According to reports, after the arrival of the remaining parts, Sany Heavy Machinery will speed up the assembly to meet the rapid growth of the market.

Hu Qi recalled that in addition to the excavators that are often seen now, there is also a type of loader, which is commonly known as a forklift. Due to technical limitations, the domestic market was dominated by loaders at the beginning, and later excavators were slowly widely used.

"Domestic excavators are 08, 09 years or so, Sany from 01 began to do excavators, 06 only sold a few hundred units, 07 sold more than 1700 units, 08 years more than 3000 units, 09 years more than 7000 units, until 2011 sold 20614 units, this is also the history of * 5661 sales." Hu Qi recalled the "excavator myth" of 11 years: "In 11 years, 170,000 units were sold in the country, accounting for half of the world's sales. ”

When it comes to the reason for the birth of the "excavator myth", Hu Qi made no secret of it, "The market in 2011 was because of the investment of 4 trillion yuan." ”

The "4 trillion" investment is a targeted investment policy measure launched by China after the international financial crisis in 2008. According to the announcement of the National Development and Reform Commission, the "4 trillion" investment in that year was: 400 billion yuan of investment in affordable housing such as low-rent housing and shantytown renovation, 370 billion yuan in livelihood projects and infrastructure such as rural water circuits and gas houses, 1.5 trillion yuan in major infrastructure construction such as railways, highways, airports, and water conservancy and urban power grid transformation, 150 billion yuan in the development of social undertakings such as medical and health, education and culture, and 210 billion yuan in energy-saving, emission reduction and ecological construction projects. 370 billion yuan for independent innovation and industrial restructuring, and 1,000 billion yuan for post-Wenchuan earthquake recovery and reconstruction.

Although the market has been so hot since the beginning of this year, Hu Qi told reporters, "The future trend will definitely not reach 170,000 units in 2011, and it is estimated that the national sales volume this year will be 8 to 90,000 units." ”

Which places sell well? Hu Qi's answer is very simple, "Where PPP does well, where sales are good." ”

According to the 5th quarterly report of the National PPP Integrated Information Platform Project Database released by the Public-Private Partnership (PPP) Center of the Ministry of Finance, as of the end of December 2016, there were 11,260 projects in the national database, with a total investment of 13.5 trillion yuan. Among them, 1,351 projects have been signed and landed, with an investment of 2.2 trillion yuan and a landing rate of 31.6%.

Agents: The market increment is too large, and the supporting supply exceeds demand

Longhui has been an agent of Sany Heavy Machinery in Jiangsu and Shanghai for more than 20 years. This year's excavator market also left a deep impression on him, "480 units were sold in February, * 4 or 50 units were sold in one more day, and it was impossible to have this sales in February in the past, and occasionally appeared in March." Long Hui said.

Long Hui introduced, this year's market started very early, still in the New Year, the fifth and sixth days of the first month, someone came to ask, in previous years, there will be orders after the fifteenth day of the first month, and 100 units were sold between the fifth and fifteenth days of this year. "It shows that everyone is in a hurry to start work, and they can't wait until after the year."

On the view that the sales volume in March will be much greater than that in February, Long Hui expressed a different view to reporters. "It is common sense that March is higher than February, but not necessarily this year. The demand is very high, but because the output of various brands cannot go up, there are not so many goods, and the supply exceeds demand. So I expect sales in March this year to be the same or slightly higher than in February. ”

According to Long Hui, the reason why the output cannot go up is that after the "excavator myth" in 2011, the market suddenly declined, and many low-quality parts suppliers were eliminated, and some chose to change careers. There were originally more than 100 host manufacturers, but now there are only about 28 left. Although the entire industrial chain is still sound, "the market increment this year is too large, and the supporting capacity is insufficient." ”

Another reason is that some excavator parts are imported from Japan, and the annual output of Japanese companies is generally not adjusted quickly at the beginning of each year, which also brings some trouble to domestic excavator manufacturers.

As the industry leader, Sany Heavy Machinery, which is represented by Longhui, is relatively well prepared in terms of inventory. However, the original plan to sell 1,600 units in February actually sold 3,300 units, which consumed a large amount of inventory, which forced the factory to speed up production. "But everyone is worried that the market demand will decline in April and May, so they don't dare to pile up too much inventory at once." Long Hui said.

According to the research report of the Luo Libo team of GF Securities on March 14, since March, some models in various places have shown a situation of being out of stock, and although the main best-selling brands are not out of stock, some small excavators are out of stock. At present, the arrival cycle of large excavators has reached about 20 days, and small excavators have reached about 7 days. Some provinces and cities expect that the main models may also be out of stock after 10 days.